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Model Year Changeover season is here. And for dealers, waiting to support 2026s could come with a significant price tag. |
We are officially entering MYCO season—the period when OEMs begin rolling out their next model year inventory and dealers begin navigating the inevitable transition from the outgoing model year to the new one.
And while the arrival of the 2027s creates excitement around new inventory, it also creates a less welcome dynamic: The accelerating pressure to move the remaining 2026s.
Our data shows just how quickly that pressure can build.
As of September 10, 58 models already have 1,000 or more 2027 vehicles in active inventory.
That number represents only the models that have already progressed meaningfully into their MYCO. There are hundreds of additional models that have either not yet begun their transition or are still in the very early stages.
In other words, we are still relatively early in the overall MYCO cycle.
The transition is already having a measurable impact on outgoing 2026 inventory. Consider two examples: the Chevrolet Equinox and Hyundai Santa Fe.
The Equinox provides a particularly clear illustration. At the beginning of June, there were more than 25,000 2026 Equinoxes in active inventory. By the week of September 6, that number had diminished as 2027 supply matured, but there are still 8,643 remaining on dealer lots.
As the new model year gained momentum, the market adjustment on the remaining 2026s became increasingly aggressive—from approximately $1,788 below MSRP in early June to $2,354 below by the week of September 6.
The Hyundai Santa Fe tells a similar story, though that MYCO is earlier in its lifecycle. 2026 Santa Fe active inventory declined from more than 38,000 units in June to 20,793 by the week of September 6, while 2027 inventory began ramping into the market.
While this model is not as far along in its MYCO maturity, discounting has already begun to eat into 2026 model year profitability. During that same period, the average market adjustment on the remaining 2026 Santa Fe moved from approximately $2,660 below MSRP to more than $3,100 below.
Across these two examples, the increase in market adjustment is approximately $500 per vehicle...for now. And that's where MYCO stops being simply an inventory-management issue and becomes an economic one.
Consider what that additional $500 of discounting could mean. The Equinox currently has 8,643 2026s remaining in active inventory. Initial cost: $4.3 million.
The Santa Fe has 20,793 2026s remaining. Initial cost: $10.4 million.
Combined, that's approximately $14.7 million in initial marketed discounting across just these two models.
And importantly, this should be viewed as a starting point, not an ending point. The $500 figure is based on the change in market adjustments we can observe today.
It doesn't fully account for the actual transaction-price change, and it doesn't account for every incentive or discount that may ultimately be used to move these vehicles.
More importantly, the MYCO process isn't finished. As this year’s MYCO season matures, the economic costs on the remaining 2026 inventory will ramp up with it.
This creates a familiar balancing act for dealers.
Move too aggressively toward the 2026s before the 2027s are available, and you risk getting caught with insufficient inventory. A vehicle that isn't on your lot can't be sold.
But wait too long, and you'll almost assuredly find yourself competing against a fully mature new model year with thousands of outgoing vehicles that gradually (and then quickly) require substantially more aggressive pricing to generate shopper consideration.
The good news is that dealers still have a window to influence the outcome before pricing pressure and holding costs begin to accelerate.
The answer to staying ahead of MYCO pricing pressure starts with visibility and precision.
Even before the 2027s begin to establish themselves in the market, dealers should be proactively preparing for the inevitable transition and making sure their 2026 vehicles are:
The goal is to create enough demand for the outgoing model year that deep discounting becomes the exception rather than the fallback.
Every model will move through the MYCO cycle at a different pace. Some 2027s are already well established. Others have barely begun.
Dealers can’t afford to wait until their 2027 inventory is mature and shoppers are expecting increasingly deep discounts on their remaining prior year supply.
The earlier you identify the risk, the more options you have.
You can use visibility, merchandising, targeted marketing and inventory-specific strategy to create demand while the outgoing model year still has time to sell on its merits.
Because once the 2027s mature and the 2026s become the inventory shoppers move away from, the options become more limited—and considerably more expensive.
MYCOs are inevitable. The cost of waiting doesn't have to be.
About Catalyst IQ
Catalyst IQ is an integrated automotive marketing agency that helps dealerships make smarter decisions and sell more cars using real-time data, AI-powered insights, and expert human support. From digital advertising and web presence to SEO/AEO and engagement, every solution drives measurable growth.